The yield curve is as inverted as it has been since 2007. Global manufacturing data has weakened. Markets are skittish about the uncertain impacts of a trade war escalation. Economists and market pundits are seeing rising estimates of an economic recession in the next twelve months.
For my part, I believe that caution is warranted, but that the economy can continue to expand as long as the healthy U.S. consumer, buoyed by robust employment, can stay strong. That said, it never hurts to look at risk-off environments to frame what could potentially happen in a