Global Macro Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2025

2025-10-02 07:40:00 ET

The Macro Picture

After an uncertain economic policy outlook dominated the first half of the year, the third quarter brought more clarity. The tariff regime in the United States appears largely set at this point, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act solidified fiscal policy for the time being, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) answered the question about when it would cut rates by doing so in September. To be clear, the environment remains somewhat uncertain - as is always the case - but the tail risks around our central scenario for the next few quarters have diminished meaningfully of late. Financial markets have responded to the reduction in uncertainty with a period of relatively low volatility, as one would expect. From a cyclical perspective, that seems likely to persist for the next few months....

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