Brace For A Slowdown: 3 Calls For Global Trade

2025-12-04 11:40:00 ET

By Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro

ING's base call: Global trade to slow

Due to AI-related trade and all the frontloading we saw ahead of the introduction of US tariffs, global trade has held up relatively well this year despite the highest tariff rates since the 1930s. Even though a collapse of global trade was avoided, US tariffs are here to stay. If anything, there is the risk of an escalation, rather than a de-escalation, of ongoing trade tensions. Not only is the US administration using tariffs as an important tool for all kinds of policy goals, but the US government also needs the revenues to partly fund the budget....

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