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Over the past few weeks the financial markets have celebrated the signs of declining “inflation”, the thinking being that the evidence of an inflation reversal will lead to a Fed pivot in the short term. Although there is now a CPI downtick in the rearview mirror, base e...
Can you simply buy stocks at any price and assume you’ll enjoy long-term returns on the order of 10% annually over the long-term? In a nutshell, long-term investment returns are driven by precisely three factors: long-term growth in fundamentals, the annualized change in valuat...
Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve. While James Bullard and others currently directing the monetary policy regime suggest they can quell inflation with only an economic slowdown, history su...
The rout in bonds so far in 2022 has been deep and wide, with a notable exception: short maturities, which have provided valuable stability that’s otherwise in short supply. This year’s experience with fixed-income securities is a reminder that short maturities sometimes...
Money managers are no longer "apocalyptically" bearish, but still very negative, according to the latest BofA Securities survey out Tuesday. Hope is rising that inflation and rate shocks are over, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in the August Fund Manager Survey. Of the 284 paneli...
Since April the Federal Reserve has hiked by 200bp, but over the same period financial conditions have improved, bringing them back to where they were in April. Why? Market rates have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed, especially since June. This must reverse. Else the Fed has n...
The 50bp vs. 75bp hike in September is a big standoff in the treasuries markets. Treasury markets are very much doubting the path of Fed policy in 2023. Markets are discounting cuts next year. If the Fed is serious about bringing inflation down, which I think it is and the Fed has sai...
Long-term investors need to have a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens, a strategy that keeps them on an even keel. Investing is hard and determining your risk tolerance is far from an exact science. There are a lot of people these days who seem to want the market ...
Stocks have retraced a little over half of this year's decline, leading bulls to all but declare victory. However, the global economy has the same structural problems it had in June when stocks were nearly 15% cheaper. Prices are increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Common...
The Fed is way behind the curve in raising bank lending rates to slow inflation. The Fed has not begun to seriously reduce its record $9 trillion in bond assets, almost entirely QE purchased since the 2008 Great Recession. I argue perhaps the Fed is "soft" defaulting on U.S. debts...
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2024-04-19 05:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles towards Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting conc...
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Extraordinary Move In Treasuries Please click here for an enlarged chart of 20+ year Treasur...