IEA - Key Analysis Sees Red Sea Shipping Diversions Starting To Boost Oil Demand | Benzinga
The IEA's report for March, released Thursday, sees increased demand for bunker fuel–the fuel that is used to power ships– because the diversions prompted by Houthi attacks on cargo vessels are now having a measurable impact on demand. That factor, combined with what the IEA said is solid demand growth from the U.S., led the agency to increase its closely watched supply/demand estimate for 2024 to reflect almost 120,000 barrels per day more demand than it forecast just one month ago.
In February, the IEA projected that global demand for petroleum in 2024 would be 103 million barrels a day. A month later, that forecast is up to 103.18 million.
The IEA's current estimate for 2023 is that the world consumed 101.84 million barrels a day. That number is subject to revision as more data comes in.
The estimated year-on-year demand increase for the first quarter is a big reason for increasing the estimate of the projected first-quarter and full-year demand increase.
Global demand in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be about 1.7 million barrels a day greater than it was in the first quarter of 2023, just over 102 million versus just over 100 million. That pace of higher first-quarter consumption is above the 1.34 million barrels a day now projected for a full-year increase in global demand.
Singapore numbers show the strength in bunker demand
Shipping demand for the longer voyages avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal is a key reason for the increased estimates. "As shipping diversions look set to continue for the foreseeable future, we have raised our 2024 bunkering outlook, ...