ENGGY - 17 Ideal Pre-Crash Recovery December Divi-Dogs

2023-11-30 16:55:30 ET

Summary

• September-October, 2023, Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune analysts and reporters combined to list five sets of stocks sorted as “Recovery Bets.” Those five articles revealed 53 equities, with 42 paying-dividends.
• These recovery lists focus on financial services, healthcare, and real estate sectors by Barron’s along with selected “change the world” stocks from Fortune and ten to watch from Bloomberg.
• Article-titles were: "6 Insurance-companies-for-2024" [Barron’s]; "13 Solid-REITS" [Barron’s]…; "12 Healthcare-Stocks" [Barron’s]…; "10 Companies-to Watch" [Bloomberg]…; "12-of-50 Change-the World-Stocks…" [Fortune].
• December, 2023, those 53 top “pre-crash-recovery” stocks ranged 0.23% to 10.31% in annual-yield and ranged -1.55% to 156.91% in one-year price-target-upsides per broker-analysts.
• Top-ten Pre-Crash-Recovery stocks boasted net-gains from 24.13% to 42.64% per YCharts forward-looking data 11/29/23. $5k invested in the December lowest-priced five of ten top-yield Pre-Crash-Recovery issues showed 18.1% LESS net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Bigger (higher-priced) stocks led the field by over one and three-quarter lengths in this special December pack.

Foreword

This article is based on five Barron’s, Bloomberg Business-Week, and Fortune articles, aimed at finding “Pre-Crash Recovery,” stocks for 2023. The title and links to the articles follow:

The Fortune Change the World list

is rooted in the belief that companies can mobilize the creative tools of capitalism to help solve social problems—using the profit motive to achieve goals that are just as important as turning a profit, and sometimes more so. The 2023 list, Fortune’s ninth, showcases 59 companies selected by reporters and editors from a short list of nearly 250. A dozen from the 53 were chosen by the author at random for this post.

REITs Have Room to Rebound.

By

Jack Hough, in Barron’s

Oct 06, 2023.

Rising rates have roughed up REITs. An MSCI index of U.S. ones has fallen 7% this year, not counting dividends, versus an 11% rise for the S&P 500. Is it time to sound the rally horn or the caution kazoo?

Maybe both. Investment bank Wedbush says the group looks cheap and poised to shine next year and beyond, despite risks.

12 Stock Picks From Barron’s Healthcare Roundtable Pros.

By Lauren R. Rublin in Barron’s

Updated October 7, 2023.

Four panelists on Barron’s 2023 healthcare roundtable saw enticing opportunities not only in pharma, biotech, hospital, and medical-device stocks that Wall Street has beaten down or ignored. Scientific breakthroughs, deal making, and a nimble response to regulation could brighten the industry’s financial prospects in the years ahead, these experts say, and reignite investor interest in one of the U.S. economy’s most important business drivers.

Insurance Stocks Are on a Roll. 6 Picks for the Rally.

Insurers have been hit by a one-two punch of natural disasters and lackluster financial markets. But there’s a silver lining: the profits and surpluses that come with rising premiums.

Nicholas Jasinski, in Barron’s Oct 15, 2023.

10 Companies to Watch (Bloomberg Businessweek) 10/9/23

It’s not only good news in the corporate world. There are three or more cautions among the Bloomberg selection of watchable mid to large cap market value stocks. They came up with ten. —By Kevin Tynan, Ada Li, Patrick Wong, Patricio Alvarez, Sharnie Wong, Ken Shea, Tamlin Bason, Philip Richards, Tom Ward, Omid Vaziri, Updated September 29, 2023. Published October 9 (Sorry no web links for Bloomberg Businessweek)

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dogcatcher) analysis, this collection ofBarron’s, Bloomberg, and

Fortune articles, aimed at identifying “Pre-Crash Recovery”, stocks is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Below are the 53 November 29, 2023 Pre-Crash “Recovery” candidates as parsed by YCharts.

The prices and yields of 17 of these 53 made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 17 Dogcatcher Ideal “Pre-Crash Recovery” stocks for December are: Enagas SA ( ENGGY ); Telia Company AB ( TLSNY ); Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc ( SBRA ); Slociete Generale SA ( SCGLY ); LTC Properties Inc ( LTC ); Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc ( GLPI ); Apartment Income REIT Corp ( AIRC ); VICI Properties Inc ( VICI ); China Resources land Ltd ( CRBJF ); UDR Inc ( UDR ); COPT Defense Properties ( CDP ); Telefonica Brasil SA ( VIV ); Host Hotels & Resorts Inc ( HST ); Banco Santander SA ( SAN ); VF Corp ( VFC ); Budweiser Brewing Co APAC LTD ( BDWBY ).

Those seventeen all live up to the ideal of annual dividends from $1K invested exceeding their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as "look closer to maybe buy" opportunity.

In a ranking of five-year price gains of the top 17 “Pre-Crash Recovery” stocks by yield, two of the Ideal selections stood out: Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc; VICI Properties Inc.

Which of the 17 are "safer" dividend dogs? To find the answer, find my "Safer" December Dividend Dogcatcher follow-up detailing these Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune selections, aimed at identifying “Pre-Crash Recovery,” stocks in our Investing Group appearing on or about December 8.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 24.13% To 42.64% ‘ Pre-Crash Recovery’ Dividend Top 10 Net Gains By December, 2024

Three of ten top “Pre-Crash Recovery” dividend stocks by yield were also among the top-ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these December dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 30% accurate.

Estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding “Pre-Crash Recovery” stocks, added to the median of aggregate one-year target prices from analysts (as reported by YCharts), generated the following results. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not included. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to December 2024 were:

Society Generale SA was projected to net $426.41, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 2 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 43% greater than the market as a whole.

Banco Santander SA was projected to net $357.50 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from 2 brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 15% greater than the market as a whole.

Johnson Controls International PLC ( JCI ) was projected to net $355.59, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 27% over the market as a whole.

Apartment Income REIT Corp was projected to net $291.91, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 12 analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for AIRC.

AstraZeneca PLC ( AZN ) was projected to net $289.36, based on the median of target price estimates from 10 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% less than the market as a whole.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc ( ARE ) was projected to net $269.75, based on the median of estimates from 12 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility equal to the market as a whole.

VICI Properties Inc was projected to net $258.30, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% under the market as a whole.

Merck & Co Inc ( MRK ) was projected to net $252.88 based on the median of target price estimates from 28 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 63% under the market as a whole.

Gilead Sciences Inc ( GILD ) was projected to net $245.56, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 27 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 68% under the market as a whole.

VFC Corp was projected to net $241.34, based on the median of target estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 50% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 29.89% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 5% under the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

53 " Pre-Crash Recovery" Equities For 2023-24 Per December Analyst Target Data

53 " Pre-Crash Recovery" Equities 2023-24 By December Yields

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top " Pre-Crash Recovery" Equities

Top ten 2023-24 "Pre-Crash Recovery" Equities by yield for December represented four of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place went to one utilities member, Enagas SA [1]. While second place was captured by communication services as represented by Telia Company AB [2],

The first of seven real estate sector representatives placed third, Sabra Health Care REIT Inc [3]. The other five placed fourth, and sixth through tenth: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc ( HR ) [4]; LTC Properties Inc [6], and Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc [7]; Apartment Income REIT Corp [8]; VICI Properties Inc [9]; China Resources Land.

The fifth slot was claimed by the lone financial services sector member: Society Generale SA [5] to complete the top ten ‘Pre-Crash Recovery’ Equities by yield for 2023-24 as of November 29.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Top "Pre-Crash Recovery" Dividend Payer s For 2023-24 Showed 21.15%-36.34% Upsides While (31) No Down-siders Were Recorded For December

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, median analyst target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 18.1% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, of 10 " Pre-Crash Recovery" Stocks for December 2023-24

Ten top Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding the "Pre-Crash Recovery" equities for 2023-24 were culled by yield 11/29/23 for this update. Yield (dividend / price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding the best "Pre-Crash Recovery" stocks, as screened 11/29/23, showing the highest dividend yields, represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield " Pre-Crash Recovery" Dividend Stocks for 2023-24 (32) Delivering 15.06% Vs. (33) 18.38% Net Gains by All Ten Come December 2024

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding the "Pre-Crash Recovery" Dividend Stocks for 2022-23 by yield, were predicted, by analyst 1-year targets, to deliver 18.1% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest-priced selection, Society Generale SA, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 42.64%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding "Pre-Crash Recovery" Stocks as of November 29 were: China Resources Land Ltd; Telia Company AB; Society Generale SA; Enegas SA; Sabara Health Care REIT, with prices ranging from $3.76 to $14.52.

Five higher-priced Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding "Pre-Crash Recovery" Stocks as of October 19 were: Healthcare Realty Trust Inc; VICI Properties Inc; Apartment Income REIT Corp; LTC Properties Inc; Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc, whose prices ranged from $15.02 to $45.35.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten projected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of expected gains, based on analyst targets, added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Afterword

This article features 53 Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune dividend selections, aimed at finding "Pre-Crash Recovery" selections for 2023-24. The article focuses on the top 30, or so, dividend payers. Thus, nearly one-half of the original list of companies is neglected. Therefore, below is the complete list of 53 stocks grouped by source.

If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

The prices of 17 of these 53 Kiplinger, and Barron's "Pre-Crash Recovery" selections for 2023-24 made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 17 Dogcatcher ideal “inflation Busting” dividend stocks for October are:

Those 17 all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as "look closer to maybe buy" opportunity.

In a ranking of three-year price gains of the top 17 “Pre-Crash Recovery” stocks by yield, two of the Ideal selections stood out: Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc; VICI Properties Inc.

Which of the 17 are "safer" dividend dogs? To find the answer find my 'Safer' October Dividend Dogcatcher follow-up detailing these Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune selections, aimed at identifying “Pre-Crash Recovery”, stocks in our Investing Group appearing on or about December 8.

How Ten Top “Pre-Crash Recovery” 2023-24 Stocks Could Become Ideal Fair Priced Dogs

Since all of the top-ten Barron’s, Bloomberg, and Fortune “Pre-Crash Recovery” stocks for 2023 shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the above charts compare those ten against break-even prices.

The dollar and percentage differences between recent and break-even prices are detailed in the top chart. The recent prices are shown in the middle chart with the break-even pricing of all ten top dogs conforming to the dogcatcher ideal are detailed in the bottom chart.

Without downside market pressure all ten highest-yield Barron’s, Bloomberg & Fortune Pre-Crash Recovery Dividend stocks, are better-than fair-priced with their annual yield (from $1K invested) exceeding their single share prices. The comparison shows how much the recent stock prices could go up before exceeding the (arbitrary but logical) price limit.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

For further details see: