VCISY - 19 Ideal April 2023 Barrons/Bloomberg/Investor Dividend Dogs

2023-04-20 00:25:54 ET

Summary

• Two Barron’s Annual-Roundtable, plus-two Bloomberg-Intelligence articles and one from InvestorPlace published late-January and April listed 119 stocks for 2023; 97 of-those were unduplicated US publicly-listed companies, of which 69 paid dividends.
• Barron’s Roundtable discussions January 20 and 27 split 49 picks from 9 panelists in-half. Bloomberg detailed 50 1/16 and 9 more in their 4/10 BusinessWeek editions. InvestorPlace listed 11 as of 4/17.
• Bar/BI/Inv 4/17/23 Watchlists tracked by YCharts projected analysis-estimated net gains from BX, CCEP, SYY, EMR, TM, REPYY, RHHBY, GPS, BBVA & topped by ICL Group ranging 17.41%-39.91%.
• Ten top 2023 Bar/BI/Inv-projected dividend yields ranged 5.58% to 18.22% from CCEP; PRU; ORAN; BBVA; GPS; DELKY; HLDCY; AKRBF; ICL; NRT.
• $5K invested April 17 in the five top-yield, lowest-priced, 2023 Bar/BI/Inv Dividend Stocks showed 38.68% more net-gain than from $5K invested in all top ten. Little lower-priced) equities led the top-ten April 2023 Bar/BI/Inv dividend-dogs by over three and three-quarter lengths.

Foreword

This article is based on five January and April Barron's Weekly, Bloomberg BusinessWeek and InvestorPlace-sourced articles aimed at revealing intriguing stocks for 2023:

Toyota and 25 Other Stock Picks for This Year, According to Barron's Roundtable Pros

Barron's panelists strive each year to identify companies with strong business fundamentals, savvy managers, and multiple paths to prosper. This week's picks range from tiny Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) to giant Toyota Motor (7203.Japan; [[TM]]), and include a smattering of media, financial, and bottling plays, too.

Roundtable Panelists

Deere, Dollar Tree, and 21 More Investment Ideas From Barron's Roundtable Pros

Each year in early January, in a tradition dating back 55 years, Barron's has grilled a group of seasoned and savvy investors about the outlook for the year ahead and their favorite investments. The 2023 Roundtable took place Jan. 9 in New York, and this week they presented the third and final edited installment from that provocative and enlightening session.

Companies to Watch from Bloomberg Intelligence

Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) tracks some 2,000 companies in sectors ranging from communications and commodities to finance and food. BI has identified 50 that rate a closer look this year based on a lot of focus ideas which contain contrary views and upcoming catalysts for change. BI analysts consider factors such as growth prospects, resilience in an inflationary environment, changes in the C-suite, and plans for new product and services. Russia's war in the Ukraine is important, of course, as are the shift to electric vehicles, challenges in the tech supply chain, China's declining property market, and the continuing effects of the Covid 19 pandemic.-Bloomberg BusinessWeek 1/16/23

10 Companies to Watch

Following our list of 50 Companies to Watch in January, we're back with ten specifically for the second quarter based on scenarios from Bloomberg Intelligence. The companies in the spotlight soon sectors and regions and re part of a larger group of high-confidence Focus ideas that BI analysts identify on an ongoing basis. Each scenario outlines important catalysts in the coming months that support our case. -Bloomberg BusinessWeek 4/10/23

The Top 11 Stocks for 2023

By Louis Navellier , Editor, Growth Investor

The United States is grappling with a serious problem: runaway inflation.

High inflation coupled with rising Treasury yields around the world and a Federal Reserve that's trying to rein in inflation by hiking key interest rates has led to very bad year for the U.S. economy and the stock market.

As a result, investors have been hit hard, and that pain is unlikely to abate anytime soon with key interest rates set to remain high for the foreseeable future.

While I'm sure this isn't what you want to hear, there is some good news…

If you're invested in the right stocks, you can still make money in this inflationary environment.

Historically, growth stocks and dividend stocks are your best defense against rising inflation. The reality is that stocks are great inflation hedges because they represent ownership in real businesses.

Even better, great businesses function as inflation "pass through" vehicles. An inflation "pass through" vehicle is a business that "passes along" the price increases that result from inflation.

With strong sales growth and profits ahead, these 11 stocks are must-haves for your portfolio as we navigate our way through this inflationary environment.

All Together Now

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to this yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these five Bar/BI/InvestorPlace articles projecting intriguing dividend stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process.

Here are January and April data for 69 dividend-paying stocks of 97 screened and the 19 living up to the dogcatcher 'ideal' in this five-source 2023 Bar/BI/Inv Stocks collection.

The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll on stocks three years ago. However, sudden recovery in prices after the plunge by these sixty-nine dividend stocks made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more remote for first-time investors.

April, 2023 showed a glimmer of light from nineteen stocks emerging as dogcatcher ideal candidates. They were: North European Oil Royalty Trust ( NRT ); ICL Group Ltd ( ICL ); Aker BP ASA ( AKRBF ); Henderson Land Development Co Ltd ( HLDCY ); Delek Group Ltd ( DELKY ); Gap Inc ( GPS ); Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria ( BBVA ); Orange SA ( ORAN ); China Gas Holdings Ltd ( CGHLY ); Porsche Automobil Holding SE ( POAHY ); Repsol SA ( REPYY ) Paramount Global ( PARA ); Glencore plc ( GLNCY ); Suncorp Group Ltd ( SNMCY ); Vinci SA ( VCISY ); Holcim Ltd ( HCMLY ); Computershare Ltd ( CMSQY ); Singapore Airlines Ltd ( SINGY ); Grupo Televisa SAB ( TV ). Their prices settled between $8.75 and $168 below the annual dividend payout from a $1K investment.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated Top-Ten 2023 Bar/BI/Inv Stocks Might Net 17.41% to 39.91% Gains By April 2024

Four of the tops-by-yield ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 (tinted in the chart below) were also the top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, the top yield dog strategy for this group, as graded by analyst estimates for this month, proved 40% accurate.

Estimated dividend-returns from $1,000 invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median-target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2023-24 data points. However, one year target-prices by lone analysts were not counted. The resulting ten probable best profit-generating Bar/BI/Inv 2023 projected to April 17, 2024, by that reckoning, were:

ICL Group Ltd netted $399.07 based on the median of target estimates from 5 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% greater than the market as a whole.

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA netted $394.28 based on the median of target estimates from 2 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 26% greater than the market as a whole.

Gap Inc netted $342.21 based on the median of target estimates from 18 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 93% greater than the market as a whole.

Roche Holding AG ( RHHBY ) netted $314.73 based on the median of target prices estimated by 3 analysts, plus estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 11% greater than the market as a whole.

Repsol SA netted $298.86 based on estimates from 2 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.

Toyota Motor Corp ( TM ) netted $194.12 based on the median of target price estimates from 4 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.

Emerson Electric Co ( EMR ) netted $190.95 based on the median of target estimates from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 40% greater than the market as a whole.

Sysco Corp ( SYY ) netted $177.00 based on the median of target estimates from 14 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 60% less than the market as a whole.

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC ( CCEP ) netted $176.68 based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from 11 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.

Blackstone Inc ( BX ) netted $174.07 based on estimates from 17 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 50% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net-gain in dividend and price was 26.62% on $10K invested as $1K in each of these ten Bar/BI/Inv Stocks 2023. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 10% greater than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The "dog" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

Top 50 Bar/BI/Inv April 2023 Stock Picks By Broker Targets

This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or 1 broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. This scale can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below. As noted above, these scores may also be taken as contrarian.

Top 50 April 2023 Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Stock Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Stocks By Yield Are The April Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Dividend Dogs

Top ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Dividend Stocks selected 4/17/23 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors.

First place was secured by the first of three energy concerns, North European Oil Royalty Trust [1]. The others placed third and fifth, Aker BP ASA [3], and Delek Group Ltd [5].

Thereafter one basic material representative placed second, ICL Group Ltd [2]. Then, one real estate member placed fourth, Henderson Land Development Co Ltd [4].

In sixth place was the lone consumer cyclical member, Gap Inc [6]. Then in seventh and ninth places were two financial services providers, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA [7], and Prudential Financial Inc ( PRU ) [9].

Eighth place was taken by the lone communication services representative, Orange SA [8].

Finally, a consumer defensive representative placed tenth, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC [10] and completed the top ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Dividend Elite for April.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Dividend Stocks Showed 13.37% to 34.33% Upsides To April 2024, With (31) Two -8.75% & -17.22% Losers

To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median-price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig-out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 38.68% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top-Ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Stocks To April 2024

Ten top Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Stocks were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top-ten Bar/BI 2023 Stocks Dogs selected 4/17/23, showing the highest dividend yields, represented seven of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated The 5 Lowest-Priced Of Ten Highest-Yield Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Dividend Stocks (33) Delivering 24.88% Vs. (34) 17.94% Net Gains by All Ten by April 2024

$5,000 invested as $1K in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 dividend pack by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 38.68% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5K in all ten. The second lowest-priced Bar/BI/Inv 2023 top-yield stock, ICL Group Ltd, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 39.91%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Bar/BI 2023 dividend stocks for April 17 were: Henderson Land Development Co Ltd; ICL group Ltd; Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA; Gap Inc; Delek Group Ltd, with prices ranging from $3.51 to $10.95.

The five higher-priced top-yield Bar/BI 2023 dividend stocks for April 17 were: Orange SA; North European Oil Realty Trust; Acer BP ASA; Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC; Prudential Financial Inc, whose prices ranged from $12.44 to $87.08.

This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the nineteen stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:

In the current market advance, dividends from $1K invested in the seventeen stocks listed above met or exceeded their single share prices as of 4/17/23.

As we are well past the third anniversary of the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those nineteen top yield Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Stocks is now... unless another big bearish drop in price looms ahead. (At which time your strategy would be to add to your holdings.)

Recent vs. Fair Top Ten Bar/BI/Inv 2023 Prices

Since eight of the top-ten Bar/BI 2023 shares are priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the following top chart shows the dollar and percentage shift required for two at recent prices to create fair pricing for all ten. The recent prices are documented in the middle chart and the fair prices revealed in the bottom chart.

The top chart is an indicator of how low the two non-ideal stocks must adjust to become fair-priced. Which means conforming the standard of dividends from $1K invested exceeding the current single share price.

All 119 2023 Bar/BI/Inv Stocks by Publication

The analysis above focuses primarily on the top yield 30 Bar/BI/Inv 2023 selections. Below is the list of all the stocks including duplicate listings, by publication.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Bar/BI/Inv 2023 stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts.

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