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There are times when the business of analyzing and writing about investment markets takes on the characteristics of a hamster on a wheel.
The net economic impact of the war in Ukraine will likely be to push inflation even higher, as prices for those commodities which Russia exports such as oil, gas, aluminum and wheat respond to the encroaching effect of sanctions.
We still believe, as we expressed in our annual outlook, that a prolonged cycle of stagflation is not the most likely economic outcome ahead.