AFMC - Above The Noise: Is Inflation Obsession Overblown?
2024-04-29 12:30:00 ET
Summary
- Stocks may benefit whether the economy and/or inflation exceed or underwhelm expectations.
- Annual deficits will rise but this may not have as big of an impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio as suspected.
- Geopolitical conflicts have been a poor predictor of stock prices. Don't be tempted to change your investment plans.
By Brian Levitt
Who knew economic data releases would be the next appointment TV?! My phone’s been blowing up with each nonfarm payroll, retail sales, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement. The “immense” stakes riding on a 10th of a percentage point change in the CPI, for example, seems overblown to me. It’s become “Must See TV,” with investors hyperfocused on making heads or tails of the report. Either may be good for the stock market:
Heads : The economy and/or inflation exceed expectations. The Federal Reserve (Fed) postpones rate cuts, but strong nominal interest rates are good for corporate profits....
Above The Noise: Is Inflation Obsession Overblown?