APMSF - Aperam: After Rain Comes Sunshine

2024-02-10 08:40:00 ET

Summary

• Aperam's full-year performance fell short of initial consensus estimates, impacted by the cyclicality of the business.
• The share price has increased by approximately 10% since last year, indicating a forward-looking market.
• Aperam's Q3 EBITDA was weaker than expected, but improved in Q4.

Introduction

After the first semester, I was quite optimistic about Aperam (APEMY) (APMSF) as this large European stainless steel producer remained on track to generate an EBITDA of almost 500M EUR. Unfortunately the second semester was quite a bit weaker and the company's full-year performance didn't even come close to the consensus estimates of 477M EUR in EBITDA. This doesn't mean Aperam is an "avoid," the cyclicality of the business has just had a profound negative impact on the performance. Interestingly, the share price is currently approximately 10% higher than where it was when I wrote last year's article, so the market is clearly forward looking....

For further details see: