AFMC - April 2024 Monthly
2024-03-30 09:30:00 ET
Summary
- The macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have not changed substantially over the past month.
- For all practical purposes, the eurozone and UK economies are stagnant, but the respective central banks also do not appear in any hurry to begin easing monetary policy.
- The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials in last month's Summary of Economic Projections was still for three cuts this year.
- The tragic history of the Middle East is getting a new chapter.
- China continues to engage wolf-diplomacy in the South China Sea.
The macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have not changed substantially over the past month. The resilience of the US economy allows the Federal Reserve to put more emphasis on achieving price stability. While the market favors a June cut (66% vs. 80% at the end of February), it has not been fully discounted for over a month. The biggest event in March may have been the well-telegraphed exit from negative interest rate policy and Yield Curve Control by the Bank of Japan. Yet, over the course of last month, Japan's two-year yield was virtually unchanged and the 10-year yield rose less than two basis points to 0.73%....
April 2024 Monthly