UNL - August 2021: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

• In this article, I review EIA consumption and export figures, look at my estimates for June and July, and conclude with my latest forecast for August, September, and October.
• On a 12-month average basis, natural gas exports now equate to around 15.82% of total demand - a new all-time record.
• Marketed production in May 2020 was the highest for the month since EIA began tracking it in 1973.
• Over the next three months (August to October), total supply will be rising faster (on an annualized basis) than total demand.
• There is not much bullishness left to be priced in. And in fact, the market should begin to price in the normalization of the SD balance in September and October.

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