IEV - Central Banks Meet In June But When Will Rate Cuts Begin?

2024-05-31 01:20:00 ET

Summary

• Europe seems extremely likely to cut rates in June, in my view, as progress on inflation has been significant.
• Inflation has slowed, and I give the Bank of Canada a 50/50 chance of a rate cut at its June meeting.
• The Federal Reserve seems poised to sit on its hands in June, as members have said they need more data to cut.

When I was a child, springtime was full of excitement. We all knew that warmer weather and summer break were just around the corner, but we didn’t know exactly when they would arrive (depending on the number of snow days we had taken, the last day of school could vary by a few days).

Still, the anticipation we all shared was universally positive. And this spring, I believe markets are in a similar anticipatory period, waiting for different central banks to begin cutting interest rates....

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