KSTR - China's First Quarter 2024 GDP Beat Forecasts As Investment Picks Up

2024-04-16 10:00:00 ET

Summary

• China’s first-quarter 2024 GDP growth came in stronger than expected despite misses in retail sales and industrial production data as growth drivers shifted back toward investment.
• Investment was the key to 1Q24 GDP's outperformance, while last year's main growth driver of consumption has moderated.
• We suspect that the GDP deflator may have also played a role in the quarter's outperformance, as inflation has remained soft at the start of the year.

By Lynn Song

China's GDP growth surprised on the upside to start the year

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has published key economic activity for March and the first quarter of 2024. The highlight was China's 1Q24 GDP coming in stronger than expected at 5.3% YoY, well above the market consensus and our forecasts for 4.8% and 4.7% growth respectively. This positive start to the year bodes well for the economy managing to achieve its 5% growth target for 2024....

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