CINF - Cincinnati Financial says Q4 earnings could fall below consensus estimate

• Cincinnati Financial ( NASDAQ: CINF ) on Friday estimated Q4 non-GAAP operating EPS of $1.24-$1.30 , compared with $1.30 consensus estimate and $0.73 reported in Q3 2022.
• The insurer also announced a 9% quarterly dividend increase to $0.75 per share from $0.69 paid on Jan. 13, 2023.
• Cincinnati Financial ( CINF ) expects Q4 results to include pretax catastrophe losses of ~$141M, representing an impact on Q4 2022 combine ratio of ~7.8 percentage points, based on estimated casualty earned premiums.
• That impact is far larger than the company's five-year historical average contribution of catastrophe losses to the combined ratio of 3.9 pp for Q4.
• The catastrophe loss estimate includes $161M from Winter Storm Elliott, net of reinsurance and excluding any effects of reinstatement premiums assumed or ceded, in addition to less severe storms and favorable loss reserve development on previous catastrophe events, primarily ones that occurred in 2022.
• CINF shares were unchanged in Friday after-hours trading.
• In Q3, Cincinnati Financial ( CINF ) results topped estimates on premium growth and investment income.

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