FTDS - Consumer Forecast: More Spending In 2022 Cutbacks In 2024

• Consumers in America will keep spending in 2022 despite inflation running higher than wage gains.
• The surge in durable goods spending seen in the last two years may reduce demand for durables in the coming years - spending on consumer durables will taper down gradually but not severely.
• The consumer spending outlook for 2022 and 2023 is secure because of the high employment, high wages and past stimulus. Tightening of monetary policy will eventually lead to weak employment growth, or even declines.
• A recession is likely around 2024, though perhaps starting late in 2023 or being delayed until 2025.

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