QQXT - Coronavirus Pandemic Taking A Lasting Bite Out Of U.S.-China Trade

• Trade data published by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates a small improvement in the level of trade between the U.S. and China.
• The size of the monthly gap peaked at $10.6 billion in October 2020 and had fallen to $7.4 billion through May 2021 as the trade recovery gained steam.
• The actual trajectory of the trailing twelve-month recovery of trade between the U.S. and China is paralleling the counterfactual we generated in early 2020 to project the expected recovery of trade between the two nations following the Trump administration's "Phase One" agreement in January 2020.

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