VGSH - CPI Services +5% Year-Over-Year - Real Or Inflated?
2024-06-13 12:40:00 ET
Summary
- Data can look good or bad, depending on the time frame, (i.e. monthly, 3-month annualized, 6-month annualized, year-over-year) so look across various frames.
- As technical analysts have stated over the years, “price is everything”, meaning the price action of what you are long, short, etc. should be the primary determinant of your subsequent action.
- It does appear some aspects of CPI – Shelter are inflated, and sending inaccurate signals, but ultimately the bond market will tell us that.
In Wednesday morning’s, June 12th, 2024 CPI report it looked great across the board, until you came across the CPI services component, and in fact, CPI Services (ex-shelter) inflation is still up 5% yoy. Unfortunately, I don’t have any comparison – whether last month was +7% or +3% – but the size of CPI Services ex-Shelter figure I found surprising....
CPI Services +5% Year-Over-Year - Real Or Inflated?