SPUS - Does The Retail Sales Report Forebode Recession?
2024-06-19 23:32:28 ET
Summary
- Retail sales declined in May and were downwardly revised for prior months, suggesting the consumer is in trouble.
- A better picture of consumer spending comes from the personal spending report that includes services, as well as goods.
- That picture shows a slowdown in consumer spending, but not one that should be alarming at this point.
Yesterday brought modest new all-time highs on the tailcoats Nvidia (NVDA) stock rising another 3.5% to become the most valuable company in the world. I think it notable that the remaining six members of the Magnificent 7 names were all down on the day. Is the rotation I have been expecting finally afoot? It is too early to tell. It was encouraging to see industrial production for May rise 0.9%, which was well above expectations for a 0.4% increase, due to an increase in factory output. That is consistent with what we have seen in the manufacturing surveys from ISM and S&P Global. A rebound in manufacturing will be important to offset the softening we know we are going to continue to see in the service sector....
Does The Retail Sales Report Forebode Recession?