VGSH - Downgrading Stocks Upgrading Credit

• We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime.
• U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher odds of rate hikes.
• U.S. inflation is in laser focus this week. Persistently high monthly inflation rates could cement the case for a 75-basis point Fed rate hike later this month.

Transcript

We think the Great Moderation, an era of steady growth and inflation, is over.

We see ourselves in a new regime of increased macro volatility and higher risk premia.

Three key themes guide us in this new environment.

1) Bracing for volatility

Macro volatility drives market volatility, so the end of the Great Moderation is now causing fierce market gyrations. In a more volatile environment, investors will demand higher compensation for holding both stocks and bonds.

2) Living with inflation

Right now, we think the Fed has boxed itself into responding to political pressures or rather the politics of inflation. This implies recession risks.

Eventually, the damage to growth and jobs from fighting inflation will become obvious and central banks will live with higher inflation.

3) Positioning for net-zero

The bumpy transition to net-zero emissions also fuels the new regime’s volatility. We like “already green” companies and carbon-intensive ones with credible transition plans or those that supply critical materials for the transition.

We think investors need to be nimble on all investment horizons.

In the short term, we’ve cut most Developed Market equities, as central banks appear set to overtighten policy. Meanwhile, we upgrade credit given their jump in yields.

Strategically, we still prefer equities over bonds in the long run as yields rise and inflation trends higher.

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The end of the Great Moderation

Notes: The chart shows the standard deviation of the annualized quarterly change of U.S. real GDP and the core Consumer Price Index.

What happened to the Great Moderation anyway? It got flipped upside down. Key features of the era were steadily expanding production capacity and demand shocks. Central banks could easily nudge spending by cutting or hiking rates. But now that’s flipped (see chart above). Why? Production constraints. The pandemic triggered a huge sectoral shift in spending from services to goods as well as labor shortages. The restart and war in Ukraine added an energy crunch. These are tough problems to solve. A pile-up of global debt to buffer the Covid shock limits the wiggle room of central banks - and makes it more tempting to live with inflation. And the politicization of everything means policy debates are oversimplified when nuanced solutions are needed. All this makes trade-offs between growth and inflation harder, we believe, and leads to worse outcomes.

Three investment themes guide us in new era

Three investment themes guide us in the new era. First - Bracing for volatility . Macro volatility drives market volatility. The end of the Great Moderation is now causing fierce market gyrations. In this structurally more volatile environment, investors will demand higher risk premia, or compensation for holding both stocks and bonds. What do we think this means? Both tactical and strategic allocations have to adapt more quickly. Portfolios have to get more granular at the sector level. Traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolios and models won’t work as well anymore. And “buying the dip” is unlikely to be as effective as it was before. The inertia behind those kind of behavioral biases must be overcome, we believe.

Our second theme is as relevant as ever - Living with inflation . Right now, we think the Fed has boxed itself in by responding to political pressures to rein in inflation. In other words, the politics of inflation rule. This implies downside risks to growth and company earnings. Eventually, the damage to growth and jobs from fighting inflation will become obvious, in our view, and central banks will live with higher inflation. Production constraints rooted in the pandemic and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine have led to 40-year highs in inflation. The spike in commodities is a prime example of how these factors have collided into an inflation explosion. And we see an era of structurally higher commodities prices ahead.

The bumpy transition to net-zero emissions also fuels the new regime’s volatility. This makes for our third theme - Positioning for net-zero. We believe markets haven’t fully priced in fast-changing societal preferences for sustainability and technological innovation. We like “already green” companies and carbon-intensive ones with credible transition plans.

What this means for investments

More frequent tactical changes - like spotting a turning point for stocks when markets eye a dovish pivot by central banks. In the short term, we’ve cut DM equities except Japanese stocks as central banks appear set to overtighten policy. We upgrade credit to overweight as part of an up-in-quality adjustment to portfolios. We still like inflation-linked bonds, and now prefer the euro area. And we like UK gilts as we see the Bank of England turning dovish.

Strategically, we believe our stance is positioned for the new regime. We prefer equities over bonds in the long run as yields rise and inflation trends higher. We think central banks will live with higher inflation, pause and then change course on their rate rises - a boon for stocks. Private markets are not immune in this new regime of higher volatility, but opportunities exist for selective investors, especially in private credit. See our full Midyear outlook for the granular changes to our asset views.

Market backdrop

Last week’s U.S. jobs update underscores the ongoing supply shock that will cause higher inflation to be more persistent. Non-farm payrolls were a little higher than expected, allowing for downward revisions in earlier months. But the participation rate - capturing those in or looking for work - fell on the month. Bond yields resumed their rise as markets priced in higher chances that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points at its policy meeting later this month.

U.S. CPI will be key this week. A continuation of the pattern of persistently high monthly inflation rates would likely cement the case for a 75-basis point Fed hike later this month. We see the Fed continuing with hikes up to restrictive levels by the end of the year. In China, second-quarter GDP will help gauge the economic impact of strict Covid lockdowns earlier this year.

This post originally appeared on the iShares Market Insights.

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