BYDDF - Electric stuff: Tesla Nio Li Auto and XPeng could jolt the sector with new deliveries report

2023-03-29 11:27:48 ET

Tesla ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) is expected to report on Q1 deliveries during the first few days of April in what will be a closely watched development for the electric vehicle sector as a whole amid concerns over demand and pricing.

The consensus estimate is that Tesla will ( TSLA ) report deliveries of 420K to bump up from the 405K deliveries in the last quarter. Barclays expects that a minor beat of 425K deliveries could be a positive catalyst for shares with some demand being pulled forward due to the Inflation Reduction Act. Meanwhile, Wedbush Securities forecasts an in-line deliveries tally of 402K Model Y/3 and 18K Model S/X for the quarter with the mix likely skewed on the upside for Model Y post price cuts in China and U.S. "We believe given the scale and scope of Tesla's production capacity that margins will not be sacrificed at the expense of volumes in 1Q with Auto GM that should be able to meet expectations," noted analyst Dan Ives.

Shares of Tesla ( TSLA ) added 1.07% in mid-day trading on Wednesday after some sideways action over the previous week. TSLA is still trading at more than 10% below its 200-day moving average with a relative strength index right at 50. Tesla's ( TSLA ) deliveries report has jolted other electric vehicle stocks in the past. After adding in that Chinese EV automakers will also spill deliveries numbers during the first few days of April and both General Motors ( GM ) and Ford ( F ) will post Q1 U.S. sales numbers, the takeaway is that auto investors will have a lot to digest in the next week.

Sector watch: The pricing war in China has put some pressure on domestic sellers such as Boyd Company ( OTCPK:BYDDF ), Nio ( NIO ), XPeng ( XPEV ), and Li Auto ( LI ), while Tesla ( TSLA ) is seen by some having a significant scale and R&D advantage over EV startups like Fisker ( FSR ), Lucid Group ( LCID ), and Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ) that are facing macroeconomic and interest rate challenges. Analysts have noted that the changes in EV market share in Q1 and Q2 could be critical to how certain stocks are viewed. So far, Tesla has the biggest share price gain in the sector with a 54% jump in 2023, followed by Faraday Future Intelligent Electric ( FFIE ) +23% and Li Auto ( LI ) +21%. EV stocks that have lost more than half of their value in 2023 include Mullen Automotive ( MULN ), Proterra ( PTRA ), Canoo ( GOEV ), Hyzon Motors ( HYZN ), Lordstown Motors ( RIDE ), and Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ( PSNY ).

Survey says: Read a breakdown of which EV brands scored well in a recent global consumer survey.

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