AFMC - Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All
2024-04-11 04:10:00 ET
Summary
- The likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the election is too close and the pace of change is slower than can justify cuts by then.
- We’ve made tremendous progress in the fight against inflation. Headline CPI has come down from 9% to 3.5% in just 18 months.
- Higher rates for 2024 will mean that we’re about to find out how real those long and variable lags are.
Well, I had a great time earlier this year as I was able to mock certain people for thinking we'd get a rate cut in March or April. But now it's my turn to be mocked as my prediction of a June cut goes up in smoke. Today's hotter-than-expected CPI all but eliminates the odds of a June cut. And as I explained in our recent analysis, the likelihood of cuts between July and October is slim because the election is too close and the pace of change is slower than can justify cuts by then. So now we might be looking at November for a cut. Or…no cut at all? What's more likely?...
Expect A Rate Cut In November Or None At All