TPHD - Global Market Perspectives Q2 2024: What's Not To Like?

2024-04-12 08:05:00 ET

Summary

• U.S. growth is downshifting somewhat as lower income households pull back, and corporates face higher refinancing costs. However, with most other global economies still struggling, the U.S. will remain the strongest global performer.
• After having made significant progress last year, inflation deceleration has flattened out. The last mile of disinflation toward central bank targets will require some economic slowdown and job market rebalancing.
• The Fed wants to cut policy rates, but it may be fazed by recent inflation surprises. It will likely cut policy rates two times this year, starting in September. Other central banks will also begin easing soon but will cut with greater urgency.
• Assets in money market funds have ballooned to a record $6 trillion, with investors attracted by elevated yields. Now, this cash represents a potential tailwind to risk assets.

By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist; Brian Skocypec, CIMA Director, Global Insights & Content Strategy; and Ben Brandsgard, Insights Strategist

Global economy

U.S. stands out from the crowd

The U.S. economy has withstood the most aggressive central bank rate hiking cycle in four decades and continues to grow strongly, overshadowing other major global economies....

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