PSCD - Halloween Creeps A Little Closer: Seasonal Supply Chains Accelerate
2023-08-30 02:20:00 ET
Summary
- Retailers are preparing for Halloween sales earlier than ever, in part due to concerns about a downturn in consumer spending.
- At least two large retailers have had Halloween merchandise available since July.
- We see clear signs of premeditated decisions to greatly accelerate Halloween sales across the industry.
Retailers are preparing for Halloween sales earlier than ever, in part due to concerns about a downturn in consumer spending. That's led to earlier shipments of Halloween products than prior years, with decorations outstripping outfits. (Worryingly, clown costumes are doing better than others.)
At least two large retailers have had Halloween merchandise available since July. The earlier arrival of seasonal shopping comes as US back-to-school spending is expected to improve but at a slow rate, as discussed in Below average: US back-to-school sales in 2023.
We see clear signs of premeditated decisions to greatly accelerate Halloween sales across the industry. US seaborne imports of Halloween-themed merchandise have peaked in July every year, except 2021 — likely reflecting supply chain bottlenecks — and 2023, when they had already peaked in June, our data shows.
There may be a degree of conservatism compared with 2022, with imports in May-July combined in 2023 being 5.9% lower than the June-August period in 2022. On a longer-term basis, the 2023 three-month peak was 18% higher than the peak period in 2016 through 2019.
Something wicked this way comes: Shifting spending patterns
Consumers' spending patterns have also shifted in the past two years, partly reflecting pandemic-era disruptions. That can be observed in the varying classifications of products imported.
US seaborne imports of Halloween-related costumes and accessories fell by 13% in April-July 2023 versus May-August 2022, while shipments of decorations and other merchandise dropped by 3%.
Among outfits, the best performers have been those linked to clowns, which increased by 43% year over year, while outfits for pets improved by 16%. Outfits linked to the "Addams Family" rose by 513% year over year, potentially owing to the Netflix Inc. series "Wednesday."
Movie tie-in outfits still lead in absolute terms but have generally experienced a downturn, with products linked to the Marvel and Star Wars franchises down by 35% and 55%, respectively.
Notably, Mattel Inc.'s ( MAT ) "Barbie" film has not been backed by increased outfit shipments, although pink clothes are not hard to come by.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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Halloween Creeps A Little Closer: Seasonal Supply Chains Accelerate