RAYC - Inflation Cycle DéJà Vu

• Although some short-term supply bottlenecks and financial speculation might drive commodity prices and inflation expectations further from here, a few big-picture facts are worth noting.
• The consensus expects consumer spending to keep accelerating because some households have higher savings now than before the pandemic, but household debt to after-tax income ratios suggest another probability.
• Aging populations will slow global growth dependent on debt-fuelled consumption in all major economies wanting fewer goods and more savings, along with technologies that allow us to do more while spending less.

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