QQQ - Jobs Growth Points To A Slowdown But No Rate Cut

2024-07-05 17:50:23 ET

Summary

• BLS reported 206,000 new jobs, slightly above the consensus estimate, but also revised down April and May figures. We've averaged just 177,300 new jobs in the last three months.
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, indicating a three-month trend of increasing unemployment.
• The Federal Reserve projects 1.8 to 2.3% growth through 2026. But there are concerns about commercial real estate valuations and regional bank CRE risks.
• There are several "gray swans" that could affect the markets were they to appear. Investors should grid their portfolios.

NEW YORK (July 5) - The Bureau of Labor Statistics ((BLS)) announced 206,000 new jobs , according to the Establishment Survey, a collection of job creation data from businesses. The number is above the 190,000 consensus estimates. However, April and May jobs creation figures were revised down by 57,000 and 54,000 new jobs, respectively, bringing the average jobs creation figure for the last three months to a moderate 177,300 new jobs, including an average of 35,000 government jobs. So, average private sector jobs creation in the second quarter is around 142,000 jobs. That's a decent number, but for comparison, we added 277,000 workers to the workforce in June.

The BLS's Household Survey, which polls the number of people taking jobs, and is viewed as eliminating workers taking more than one job, was roughly on par with the Establishment Survey at 190,000 new jobs....

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