TPLC - June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?
2024-07-05 13:35:00 ET
Summary
- The U-3 unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent in June 2024.
- The Sahm Rule, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is designed to identify the start of a recession using changes in the total unemployment rate.
- If the labor force grows rapidly and the economy does not generate enough jobs to match the increase, the unemployment rate might rise and the Sahm Rule may be triggered.
In this morning’s US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release, the U-3 unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent in June 2024, rising by one-tenth of a percentage point above the forecast rate. The U-3 rate measures the percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work, excluding discouraged workers and the underemployed....
June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?