MALRY - Lithium Miners News For The Month Of October 2023

2023-10-26 13:34:16 ET

Summary

• Lithium chemical spot prices and spodumene prices were slightly lower in the past month. Citi short-term forecast is for lithium carbonate price to fall to US$18,000/t.
• Lithium market news - Argentina mulls charging lithium miners' contribution. "Incredible lithium price spike" on the way as new chemical capacity drives demand, says Brinsden.
• Lithium company news - Albemarle withdraws offer to acquire Liontown Resources. Ganfeng started construction of a US$250M lithium processing plant in Nigeria. Lithium Americas split finalizes to form LAC and LAAC.

Welcome to the October 2023 edition of the lithium miner news.

The past month saw lithium prices start to stabilize after the large falls in 2023. Takeover activity in lithium juniors continues to be a growing trend in 2023, especially as stock prices fall.

Lithium price news

Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the 99.5% China delivered lithium carbonate (99.5% min.) spot price was down 2.70% and the China lithium hydroxide (56.5% min.) price was down 2.05% . The Lithium Iron Phosphate (3.9% min) price was down 2.10% . The Spodumene (6% min) price was down 9.75% over the past 30 days.

Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price of USD 2,255/t, as of Oct. 24, 2023.

China lithium carbonate spot price 5-year chart - CNY 164,500 (~USD 22,505) ( source )

S&PGlobal lithium price forecast as of Nov. 2022 ( source )

Wood Mackenzie's lithium price forecast - July 2022 ( Source )

Lithium demand versus supply outlook

You can view the latest Trend Investing lithium demand vs supply exclusive article here .

BMI (Q2, 2023 forecast) - Lithium market balanced to short through 2030 ( source )

2022 - UBS lithium demand vs supply forecast to 2030

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts deficits for lithium, nickel & cobalt to increase from 2027 onwards ( source )

Fastmarkets forecasting mostly lithium deficits ahead to 2025 (as of March 2023) ( Source )

Lithium demand vs supply forecast by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (mid-2022 forecast)

Trend Investing vs IEA demand forecast for EV metals ( Trend Investing ) ( IEA )

Lithium market and battery news

On September 25, Fastmarkets reported :

China's lithium prices soften further, dragging down other markets.

• Chinese lithium prices fall on weak demand, bearish sentiment, weak futures
• East Asian lithium prices track a downtrend in China
• European, US lithium prices mirror weakness in Asia...

"We haven't purchased spot lithium carbonate over the past week because our supply is well covered by our long-term agreements. In general, cathode producers dare not stock up while the lithium price downtrend is expected to persist," a Chinese cathode producer source said. Multiple sources told Fastmarkets that some of China's cathode producers were operating on low lithium inventories - just about 2-3 days' worth of production.

On September 29 Mining.com reported :

Quebec in talks with battery, auto makers for $11bn in EV-related investments. Quebec is in talks with battery makers and automobile companies looking to invest about C$15 billion ($11 billion) in the Canadian province over the next three years to build electric vehicle (EV) supply chains...LeBlanc said Quebec has secured C$15 billion over the past three years and another C$15 billion is coming in the next three years...Over the past three years, Quebec has attracted investments from auto and battery makers such as General Motors, POSCO and Ford Motors. The biggest investment was announced on Thursday when Swedish battery maker Northvolt announced plans to build a $5.2 billion plant in the province.

On September 29 Mining.com reported :

Argentina seeks to tax lithium boom to avoid region's resource curse. Argentina is pushing to levy a new tax on lithium producers and make them hold back some production for national battery projects. Provincial and federal officials want to tap the profits of lithium companies with an annual tax that would be put toward building infrastructure. They're also proposing a quota of up to 20% of output to be kept for domestic battery projects.

On September 30 Yahoo Finance reported :

Argentina mulls charging lithium miners contribution to boost infrastructure...Argentina's mining secretariat said on Friday the governors of the country's lithium-producing provinces are drawing up plans for lithium miners to make a "special contribution" so state coffers can benefit from extraordinary profits... A resolution for the "special lithium contribution" is set to be finalized by Oct. 30.

On October 12 Mining.com reported :

BYD looks to buy lithium assets in Brazil in EV raw material push. BYD Co. is mulling the purchase of lithium mining assets in Brazil as it seeks to lock in raw-material supplies to expand its electric car production outside Asia. The Chinese company's new EV factory in Brazil...BYD hopes it will be able to finish work in less than two years... "We prefer to buy any available and affordable resource, but it needs to be competitive. At the same time, BYD also prefers to own some mining operations in Brazil..."

On October 12 The Motley Fool reported :

3 ASX lithium shares just upgraded by Citi...Citi thinks lithium prices could fall another 15% to 20% before a strong long-term rebound. The broker's short-term forecast is for the lithium carbonate price to fall to US$18,000 and the CME hydroxide price to fall to $22,000 per tonne over the next year. Its long-term forecast for lithium carbonate is US$20,000 per tonne, and for lithium hydroxide, it's US$23,000 per tonne...."

On October 19 Bloomberg reported :

World's biggest battery maker CATL earnings miss as EV sales dip....Net income rose 10% from a year earlier to 10.4 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) in the three months through September, CATL said in a filing Thursday, well below analyst estimates of 13.02 billion yuan. Revenue increased 8.2% to 105.4 billion yuan, marking the slowest rate of top-line growth in three years, versus the 110.68 billion yuan average projection from four analysts.

On October 19 Resources Rising Stars reported :

Incredible lithium price spike' on way as new chemical capacity drives demand, says Brinsden..... But fear not, no less than Australia's Mr Lithium - Ken Brinsden - reckons another bout of "incredible price spikes" is in the works... "Masses of chemical capacity is going to be built in the western world, or is already under construction, including in North America and Australia..."There will be incredible price spikes in the raw materials because it is the raw materials that are going to be short in the world - not the chemical capacity, not the battery making capacity, and not the EV making capacity.""

On October 23 Reuters reported :

Argentina's Peronists post shock election win to seal run-off with libertarian Milei. Argentina's ruling Peronist coalition smashed expectations to lead the country's general election on Sunday, setting the stage for a polarized run-off vote next month between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and far-right libertarian radical Javier Milei. Massa had over 36% of the vote, ahead of Milei on just over 30%, while conservative Patricia Bullrich was behind on 23.8% with near 90% of the vote counted...The surprise strength of the Peronists, despite overseeing inflation hitting triple digits for the first time since 1991, sets up an intriguing second round on Nov. 19 between two polar opposite economic models for the embattled country.

Note: Milei is pro free markets, so in theory should be more positive for the lithium miners.

Lithium miner news

Albemarle Corporation (ALB)

On October 15, Albemarle announced :

Albemarle withdraws non-binding offer to acquire Liontown Resources..."Our engagement with the Liontown team has been meaningful and productive. We appreciate the level of cooperation we have received, and we thank the entire team for their efforts," said Kent Masters, CEO of Albemarle. "That said, moving forward with the acquisition, at this time, is not in Albemarle's best interests."

On October 18, Albemarle announced :

Albemarle closes amended MARBL Lithium joint venture arrangement... The amended agreements were entered into by the parties to further simplify commercial arrangements. Albemarle now has 100% ownership of the Kemerton lithium hydroxide processing facility in Australia and retains full ownership of its Qinzhou and Meishan lithium processing facilities in China. Other key aspects of the revised agreements include the April 1, 2022, economic effective date (EED) and joint ownership of the Wodgina mine, with Albemarle and Mineral Resources each owning a 50% share and Mineral Resources serving as the operator. Albemarle expects to pay Mineral Resources US$380 - 400 million which includes net consideration for the estimated EED settlement adjustments and the remaining 15% ownership of Kemerton.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] (WFAFY), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV)

On October 23 Mining.com reported :

SQM buys 30% stake in Australia's Pirra Lithium. Chilean lithium giant SQM (NYSE: SQM) has agreed to buy a 30% interest in Australia's Pirra Lithium, a junior born in March from the combination of certain exploration assets in the Pilbara region held by Calidus Resources (ASX: CAI) and Haoma Mining. SQM will ultimately increase its stake in Pirra Lithium to 40% by injecting A$3 million ($1.9m) to fund exploration, Calidus - which owned Pirra equally with Haoma - said in the statement .

Upcoming catalysts:

Q4, 2023 - Mt Holland spodumene production to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Q4, 2024 - 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] refinery (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] (GNENY)

On October 14, Mugglehead reported :

Ganfeng Lithium starts construction of US$250M lithium processing plant in Nigeria. Upon completion, the site will employ around 2,500 locals and be capable of processing 4.5 million metric tons of lithium per year.

(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA

No news for the month. There was some news regarding St George Mining's Mt Alexander Lithium Project where exploration is underway again (IGO has a 25% JV in leases E29/638 of the Project).

Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] (PILBF)

No significant news for the month. There was a Notice of 2023 AGM to be held on Thursday, 23 November 2023.

Upcoming catalysts:

• Late 2023 - Plan to commission production of POSCO/Pilbara Minerals (18%, option to increase to 30%) JV LiOH facility in Korea.
• End Q2, FY 2024 - P680 Expansion Project set to reach full capacity.
• Q3 FY, 2025 - P1000 Expansion Project set to begin production.

Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] (MALRF)

Mineral Resources lithium assets include Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine (50% ALB: 50% MIN).

On September 22, Mineral Resources announced : "Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves update." Highlights include:

• "Mt Marion Ore Reserve of 35.7Mt at 1.42% Li2O, representing a significant 107% increase from June 2022.
• Mt Marion Mineral Resources of 64.8Mt at 1.42% Li2O, up 26% from June 2022.
• Wodgina Ore Reserve of 164.6Mt at 1.15% Li2O, up 12% from June 2022.
• Wodgina Mineral Resources of 217.4Mt at 1.15% Li2O, down 16% from June 2022..."

On September 29, Mineral Resources announced :

Mineral Resources Limited prices US$1.1 billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering. Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) (MinRes or Company) announced the pricing on 28 September 2023 of its US$1.1 billion 9.250% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028 (the Notes)...

On October 4, Mineral Resources announced : "Mineral Resources completes US$1.1 billion Senior Unsecured Notes Offering..."

On October 16, Mineral Resources announced : "2023 Sustainability Report..."

On October 18, Mineral Resources announced :

Simplified MARBL JV agreement completed...MinRes' share of the Wodgina lithium mine will increase from 40% to 50%. MinRes will also remain the operator of the mine. Following approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board, Albemarle will now take full ownership of the Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide Plant...

Livent Corp. (LTHM) [GR:8LV] (NB: Allkem and Livent plan to merge towards the end of 2023)

No significant news for the month.

Allkem [ASX:AKE] [TSX:AKE] ( OROCF )(NB: Allkem and Livent plan to merge towards the end of 2023)

On September 25, Allkem announced : "Cauchari Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve update and project update." Highlights include:

Financial Metrics

• "25,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate production capacity.
• Material ~200% increase in Pre-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") to US$2.52 billion from US$0.84 billion in the previous study at a 10% discount rate. The Post-tax NPV at 10% discount rate is US$1.37 billion.
• ....Operating costs increased from US$3,560 per tonne LCE to US$4,081 per tonne lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE") due to material increases in the price of soda ash, lime, natural gas and employment costs since the previous study."

Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve

• "Total Mineral Resource Estimate of 5.95 million tonnes ("Mt") LCE, a 6% decrease from the previous estimate in 2019 due to slight changes in mining parameters...

Project Cost and Schedule Update

• "Increase in the development capital cost estimate ("CAPEX") from US$446 million in the previous study to US$659 million, for mechanical completion, representing a 48% increase.
• Substantial mechanical completion, pre-commissioning and commissioning activities are expected by H1 CY27 with first production expected in H2 CY27 and ramp up expected to take 1 year."

On September 25, Allkem announced : "James Bay Lithium Project update confirms strong project economics." Highlights include:

• "Updated Feasibility Study confirms a robust, high-value hard rock lithium operation utilizing renewable hydropower.
• Material ~108% increase in pre-tax Net Present Value ("NPV")....Pre-tax NPV of US$2.9 billion at an 8% discount rate and post-tax NPV of US$1.7 billion.

On September 25, Allkem announced : "Sal de Vida update delivers improved economics, resource and reserve." Highlights include:

Stage 1 and 2 (45,000 lithium carbonate equivalent tonnes per annum)Financial Metrics

• "Material ~82% increase in Pre-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") to US$5.51 billion from US$3.04 billion in the previous study at a 10% discount rate. The Post-tax NPV10 is US$3.18 billion.
• Operating cost increased from US$3,280 per tonne lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE") to US$4,003 per tonne LCE due to increases in the price of soda ash, lime and labour costs since the previous study."

Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve

• "Total Mineral Resource Estimate of 7.17 million tonnes ("Mt") lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE"), a 5% increase from the previous estimate in 2022, with a 41% increase in Measured Mineral Resources.
• Total Ore Reserve Estimate of 2.49 Mt LCE supporting a 40-year project life based on Ore Reserves only, a 43% increase from the previous statement due to a revised point of reference for Ore Reserve reporting of 'brine pumped to the evaporation ponds'....."

On September 25, Allkem announced : "Olaroz Mineral Resource update, and Stage 1 & 2 operations update." Highlights include:

Stage 1 and 2 (42,500 lithium carbonate equivalent tonnes per annum)Financial Metrics

• "Pre-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") of US$7.01 billion at a 10% discount rate and a Post-tax NPV of US$4.56 billion.
• Long term operating costs for the combined Stage 1 and Stage 2 operation are estimated at US$4,149 per tonne lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE") over the life-of-mine considering operational synergies from the joint operation of Stage 1 and 2."

Mineral Resource

• "Total Mineral Resource Estimate of 22.63 million tonnes ("Mt") LCE, a 10% increase from the previous estimate in March 2023 with a 52% increase in Measured Mineral Resources...."

On September 25, Allkem announced : "Allkem confirms material growth profile underpinned by 40 Mt Resource." Highlights include:

• "Updated studies confirm the robust economics and tier one nature of the asset base, further de-risking both company growth and future production (refer to Table 1).
• Total group resources of ~40 million tonne ("Mt") (refer to Table 2) lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE") demonstrates the world class asset base of the Allkem Group....
• Allkem (100% basis) plans to deliver 179,000 tonnes ("kt") of LCE production capacity by FY28 (165kt of LCE capacity on an attributable basis) up from approximately 50kt forecast for FY24.
• Growth projects are planned to be fully funded from existing corporate cash, existing or new corporate debt/project finance facilities and cash flow from operations.
• Potential for further multiple large-scale expansions at Olaroz, Sal da Vida, James Bay and Cauchari..."

On September 28, Allkem announced : "Update in relation to merger with Livent Corporation."

On October 6, Allkem announced : "Additional financial reports in the context of proposed Livent merger..."

AMG Critical Materials N.V. [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] (AMVMF) (Formerly AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV)

No news for the month

Upcoming catalysts:

• 2023/24 - Stage 2 production at Mibra Lithium-Tantalum mine (additional 40ktpa) is forecast to begin, bringing total production capacity to 130ktpa.
• Q4, 2023 - Lithium hydroxide facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen Germany to be commissioned. The first module is to be 20,000tpa LiOH.
• 2025-2028 - German LiOH facility expansion plan with Modules 2-5 (100,00tpa LiOH).

Sayona Mining [ASX:SYA] ( SYAXF )

On October 23, Sayona Mining announced : "Moblan drilling shows expansion potential of high grade lithium asset." Highlights include:

• "Latest results for 41 new drillholes totaling 8,925m for Sayona's Moblan Lithium Project, Québec, Canada with highlights including: 55.6m @ 1.80% Li2O from 154.2m to 209.6m in 1331-23-430. 52.6m @ 1.50% Li2O from 134.0m to 186.6m in 1331-23-431...51.4m @ 1.34% Li2O from 54.1m to 105.5m in 1331-23-471. 54.0m @ 1.28% Li2O from 105.5m in 1331-23-477...
• High-grade mineralization identified outside of the current Mineral Resources estimate (MRE) pit shell model, demonstrating the potential for further resource growth.
• Mineralization inside MRE pit shell continues to show continuity and consistency in grade and thickness.
• Results reinforce Moblan's status as the centerpiece of Sayona's Eeyou-Istchee James Bay hub.
• Further assay results pending from the completed 2023 drilling campaign."

Upcoming catalysts include:

• 2023 - Spodumene production ramp up at NAL operations (owned SYA 75%: PLL 25%).

Piedmont Lithium (PLL)[ASX:PLL]

Piedmont Lithium 100% owns the Carolina Lithium spodumene project in North Carolina, USA; as well as 25% of the North American Lithium [NAL] Project in Canada and 47% of the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana.

On October 11, Piedmont Lithium announced : "Piedmont Lithium partners with Vinland Lithium to advance the Killick Lithium Project in Newfoundland." Highlights include:

• "Piedmont to acquire a 19.9% equity interest in newly-formed Vinland Lithium for C$2 million cash consideration.
• Through staged investments, Piedmont may earn up to a 62.5% equity interest in Vinland's Killick Lithium Project.
• Killick Lithium's large land package hosts ~60 kilometers of highly prospective strike length.
• Initial exploration results are encouraging, and the Project is logistically advantaged in southern Newfoundland, Canada.
• Piedmont will have a right of first refusal on offtake rights to future concentrate production.
• Investment is consistent with Piedmont's strategy of growing its spodumene resource base by investing in projects with large-scale potential in favorable locations, and managed by strong exploration teams."

On October 25 Piedmont Lithium announced : "Ghana issues Mining Lease for Ewoyaa Project."

Upcoming catalysts include:

• H2 2025 - Ewoyaa Project in Ghana (47% PLL) targeted to begin.
• 2026 - Tennessee Lithium hydroxide project targeted to begin.
• 2023-25 - Carolina Lithium (100%) - Permitting, off-take or project funding announcements.

Core Lithium Ltd. [ASX:CXO] [GR:7CX] (CXOXF)

Core 100% owns the Finniss Lithium Project (Grants Resource) in Northern Territory Australia. Significantly they already have an off-take partner with China's Yahua (large market cap, large lithium producer), who has signed a supply deal with Tesla (TSLA). The Company states they have a "high potential for additional resources from 500km2 covering 100s of pegmatites."

On September 29, Core Lithium Ltd. announced : "First full-year profit as a lithium producer." Highlights include:

• "...Finniss Mineral Resource estimate increased by 62% to 30.6Mt @ 1.31% Li2O, including the BP33 Mineral Resource estimate of 10.1Mt @ 1.48% Li2O.
• Maiden revenue of $50.6 million EBITDA of $14.0 million and Net Profit After Tax of $10.8 million. Operating cash flow of $90.8 million.
• Provision of first production guidance of 90,000t to 100,000t of spodumene concentrate sales for FY24."

On October 16, Core Lithium Ltd. announced : "Mineral Resource at BP33 increased to 89% Measured and Indicated."

Catalysts include:

• 2023 - Ramp up of spodumene production from Finniss.

Sigma Lithium Resources [TSXV:SGML] (SGMLF) (SGML)

Sigma is developing a world-class lithium hard rock deposit with exceptional mineralogy at its Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil.

On October 2, Sigma Lithium announced : "Sigma lithium achieves record peak production of 890 tonnes per day, equivalent to annualized 320,000 tonnes per year." Highlights include:

• "Sigma Lithium announces that its Greentech Plant has reached record daily peak production of 890 tonnes of Triple Zero Green Lithium, equivalent to annualized production of 320,000 tonnes.
• The Company is on track to achieve annual 2023 production guidance of 130,000 tonnes.
• The Company has exceeded the design utilization rate of 85%, running at 88%.
• Greentech Plant's throughput has evolved to 100% design capacity."

On October 16, Sigma Lithium announced : "Sigma Lithium readies third shipment of 20,000 tonnes of Triple Zero Green Lithium at Port by October 20th." Highlights include:

• "Sigma Lithium shall complete the delivery of 20,000 tonnes of "Triple Zero Green Lithium" by truck to the Port of Vitoria by October 20th, when the material will be ready to load the third shipment.
• The third shipment demonstrates the consistent performance of Sigma Lithium's Greentech Plant including all three circuits (Crusher, DMS, Tailings Dry Stacking), with continued production of large volumes of "Triple Zero Green Lithium":
  • Zero tailings (donated or sold).
  • Zero hazardous chemicals.
  • Zero carbon (neutrality achieved through Amazon Rainforest VERRA Carbon Credits).
• This important milestone underscores the capabilities and execution steadiness of our technical leadership team onsite as well as the cultural alignment of the entire Company around our core sustainability purpose: achieve large-scale production with 100% of tailings dry stacked and 100% of water reutilized."

For further details see:

Lithium Miners News For The Month Of October 2023