CGHLY - March's 17 Ideal 2023 Barrons/Bloomberg Dividend Dogs

Summary

• Two Barron’s Annual Roundtable, plus one Bloomberg Intelligence article published late January listed 99 stocks of-note for 2023; 78 of those were unduplicated US publicly-listed companies, of which 56 were paid dividends.
• Barron’s two roundtable discussions on January 20 and 27 split 49 picks from 9 panelists in half, whereas Bloomberg detailed all 50 in their January 16 BusinessWeek edition.
• Bar/BI 2/28/23 Watchlist accounting from YCharts projected analyst-estimated net gains from TM, NXPI, AMGN, RTX, BX, SYY, CCEP, EMR REPYY & topped by RHBBY ranging 11.4%-43.76%.
• Ten top 2023 Bar/BI-projected dividend yields ranged from 4.78% to 7.94% from POAHY; BX; CGHLY; PRU; CCEP; TIP; ORAN; DELKY; AKRBF.
• $5k invested on February 28 in the five top-yield, lowest-priced, 2023 Bar/BI Dividend Stocks showed 32.27% LESS net gain than from $5k invested in all top ten. Big (higher-priced) equities led the top-ten March 2023 Bar/BI dividend dogs by nearly three and one-quarter lengths.

Foreword

This article is based on three January Barron's Weekly and Bloomberg BusinessWeek-sourced articles aimed at revealing intriguing stocks for 2023:

Toyota and 25 Other Stock Picks for This Year, According to Barron's Roundtable Pros

Barron's panelists strive each year to identify companies with strong business fundamentals, savvy managers, and multiple paths to prosper. This week's picks range from tiny Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) to giant Toyota Motor (7203.Japan) (TM) and include a smattering of media, financial, and bottling plays, too.

Roundtable Panelists

Deere, Dollar Tree, and 21 More Investment Ideas From Barron's Roundtable Pros

Each year in early January, in a tradition dating back 55 years, Barron's has grilled a group of seasoned and savvy investors about the outlook for the year ahead and their favorite investments. The 2023 Roundtable took place Jan. 9 in New York, and this week they presented the third and final edited installment from that provocative and enlightening session.

Here Are Barron's 10 Top Stocks for the New Year

Barron's list for 2023 includes a typical mix of household names and potential surprises: Alcoa ( AA ), Alphabet ([[GOOG]], [[GOOGL]]), Amazon (AMZN), Bank of America ( BAC ), Berkshire Hathaway ([[BRK.A]], [[BRK.B]]), Comcast ( CMCSA ), Delta Air Lines ( DAL ), Medtronic ( MDT ), Madison Square Garden Sports ( MSGS ), and Toll Brothers ( TOL ). Two of the stocks, Amazon and Berkshire, are holdovers from their 2022 list.

Companies to Watch from Bloomberg Intelligence

Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) tracks some 2,000 companies in sectors ranging from communications and commodities to finance and food. BI has identified 50 that rate a closer look this year based on a lot of focus ideas which contain contrary views and upcoming catalysts for change. BI analysts consider factors such as growth prospects, resilience in an inflationary environment, changes in the C-suite, and plans for new product and services. Russia's war in the Ukraine is important, of course, as are the shift to electric vehicles, challenges in the tech supply chain, China's declining property market, and the continuing effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. - Bloomberg BusinessWeek 1/16/23

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to this yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these three Bar/BI articles projecting intriguing dividend stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is January 29 data for 56 dividend-paying stocks of 77 screened and the 17 living up to the dogcatcher "ideal" in this three-source collection. These make the 2023 Bar/BI Stocks collection.

The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll on stocks three years ago. However, the sudden recovery in prices after the plunge of these fifty-six dividend stocks made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more remote for first-time investors.

March 2023 shows a glimmer of light from seventeen stocks emerging as dogcatcher ideal candidates. They were: Aker BP ASA ( AKRBF ); Delek Group Ltd ( DELKY ); Henderson Land Development Co Ltd ( HLDCY ); Orange SA ( ORAN ); Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC ( CCEP ); China Gas Holdings Ltd ( CGHLY ); Porsche Automobil Holding SE ( POAHY ); Repsol SA ( REPYY ) Paramount Global ( PARA ); Glencore PLC ( GLNCY ); Suncorp Group Ltd ( SNMCY ); Vinci SA ( VCISY ); Holcim Ltd ( HCMLY ); Computershare Ltd ( CMSQY ); Shaftesbury PLC ( SHABF ); MediaTek Inc ( MDTKF ); Grupo Televisa SAB ( TV ); Singapore Airlines Ltd ( SINGY ). Their prices settled between $6 and $65 below the annual dividend payout from a $1K investment.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated Top-Ten 2 023 Bar/BI Stocks Might Net 11.4% to 43.76% Gains By March 2024

Two of the tops-by-yield ten Bar/BI 2023 (tinted in the chart below) were also the top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, the top yield dog strategy for this group, as graded by analyst estimates for this month, proved 20% accurate.

Estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median-target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2023-24 data points. However, one-year target prices by lone analysts were not counted. The resulting ten probable best profit-generating Bar/BI 2023 projected to February 28, 2024, by that reckoning, were:

Roche Holding AG ( RHHBY ) netted $437.63 based on the median of target prices estimated by 3 analysts, plus estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 61% less than the market as a whole.

Repsol SA netted $373.49 based on estimates from 2 analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 77% greater than the market as a whole.

Emerson Electric Co ( EMR ) netted $245.21 based on the median of target estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 40% greater than the market as a whole.

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC netted $232.82 based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from 11 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 21% less than the market as a whole.

Sysco Corp ( SYY ) netted $184.43 based on the median of target estimates from 14 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% greater than the market as a whole.

Blackstone Inc ( BX ) netted $165.15 based on estimates from 17 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 52% greater than the market as a whole.

Raytheon Technologies Corp ( RTX ) netted $125.66 based on the median of target estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% greater than the market as a whole.

Amgen Inc ( AMGN ) netted $125.39 based on the median of target estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.

NXP Semiconductors NV ( NXPI ) netted $122.07 based on the median of target estimates from 27 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 53% greater than the market as a whole.

Toyota Motor Corp ( TM ) netted $114.02 based on the median of target price estimates from 4 analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 39% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was 21.26% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Bar/BI Stocks 2023. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility of 2% less than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The "dog" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest-yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

Top 50 Bar/BI March 2023 Stock Picks By Broker Targets

This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or 1 broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. This scale can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below. As noted above, these scores may also be taken as a contrarian.

Top 50 March 2023 Bar/BI 2023 Stock Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Stocks By Yield Are The January Bar/BI 2023 Dividend Dogs

Top ten Bar/BI 2023 Dividend Stocks selected 2/28/23 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors and an ETF.

First place was secured by one of two energy concerns, Acer BP ASA [1]. The other placed second, Delek Group Ltd [2].

Thereafter a real estate member placed third, Henderson Land Development Co Ltd [3]. Fourth place was taken by the lone communication services representative, Orange SA [4].

The ETF , captured the fifth slot, iShares TIPS Bond ETF ( TIP ) [5].

Then, one consumer defensive member placed sixth, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC [6].

In seventh and ninth places were two financial services providers, Prudential Financial Inc ( PRU ) [7], and Blackstone Inc [9]. In eighth place, was a utilities sector member, China Gas Holdings Ltd [8].

Finally, a consumer cyclical representative placed tenth, Porsche Automobil Holdings SE [10] and completed the top ten Bar/BI 2023 Dividend Elite for March.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Bar/BI 2023 Dividend Stocks Showed 9.86% to 41.19% Upsides To March 2024, With (31) One -13.79% Loser

To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median-price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 32.27% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top-Ten Bar/BI 2023 Stocks To March 2024

Ten top Bar/BI 2023 Stocks were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top-ten Bar/BI 2023 Stocks Dogs selected 2/28/23, showing the highest dividend yields, represented seven of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme plus one ETF.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated The 5 Lowest-Priced Of Ten Highest-Yield Bar/BI 2023 Dividend Stocks (33) Delivering 5.81% Vs. (34) 8.58% Net Gains by All Ten by March 2024

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Bar/BI 2023 dividend pack by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 32.27% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The seventh lowest-priced Bar/BI 2023 top-yield stock, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 23.28%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Bar/BI 2023 dividend stocks for February 28 were: Henderson Land Development Co Ltd; Porsche Automobile Holding SE; Delek Group Ltd; Orange SA; Acer BP ASA, with prices ranging from $3.55 to $27.09

The five higher-priced top-yield Bar/BI 2023 dividend stocks for February 28 were: China Gas Holdings ltd; Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC; Blackstone Inc; Prudential Financial Inc; shares TIPS Bond ETF, whose prices ranged from $35.70 to $107.18.

This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the seventeen stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:

In the current market advance, dividends from $1K invested in the seventeen stocks listed above met or exceeded their single share prices as of 2/28/23.

As we are near the third anniversary of the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those seventeen top yield Bar/BI 2023 Stocks is now... unless another big bearish drop in price looms ahead. (At which time your strategy would be to add to your holdings.)

Recent vs Fair Top Ten Bar/BI 2023 Prices

Since seven of the top-ten Bar/BI 2023 shares are priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the following top chart shows the dollar and percentage shift required for three at recent prices to create break-even pricing for all ten. The recent prices are documented in the middle chart and the fair prices are revealed in the bottom chart.

The top chart is an indicator of how low the three non-ideal stocks must adjust to become fair-priced. This means conforming to the standard of dividends from $1K invested exceeding the current single share price.

All 99 2023 Bar/BI Stocks by Publication

The analysis above focuses primarily on the top yield 30 Bar/BIl 2023 selections. Below is the list of all the stocks including duplicate listings, by publication.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

The stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Bar/BIl 2023 stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

For further details see: