SPTS - Markets Continue To Expect Rate Cuts After Fed Chair's Comments

2024-07-03 14:59:00 ET

Summary

• The next update on inflation that will test whether disinflationary progress is continuing arrives on July 11, with the release consumer prices for June.
• The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield continues to trade in a tight range, ending yesterday’s session (June 2) at 4.75%.
• The current estimate reflects a roughly 65% probability that the central bank will announce a rate cut in two months.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference on Tuesday, gave the doves most of what they wanted to hear. Although he said more evidence was needed to rationalize cutting interest rates, his overall message favored expectations that policy easing is on the near-term horizon....

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