EGPT - MENA Economic Outlook 2022: Strengthening Regional Growth Faces Global Headwinds

• The MENA region is set to witness accelerating economic growth in the near term. We expect MENA real GDP growth at 5.2% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023.
• At the same time, global supply chain disruptions, coupled with persistently high energy prices, are likely to trigger upward pressures on consumer prices, more so in energy-importing MENA economies.
• With inflation remaining more or less contained and the US Federal Reserve not hiking key policy rates before late 2022 (although we acknowledge risks of an early lift-off), we do not expect a shift in monetary policies in the region (especially in countries with long-standing US dollar pegs) in the near future.
• The path to a sustained growth scenario remains fraught with uncertainties, however. We see more downside than upside risks.

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