BIL - One Down One To Go

2024-06-30 12:50:00 ET

Summary

• The first half of 2024 is drawing to a close today, and we have one more half year to go.
• The first six months of the year were perhaps most notable for steadily weaning the bond market off its fantasies of multiple rate cuts.
• All else being equal we would think the odds are better than not for a September cut.
• Nothing we can see in recent data releases suggests a change to the assumption for a slowdown, with growth remaining modestly positive.

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