AFMC - Our Favorite Recession Indicator: Next Recession Keeps Moving Further Out
2024-05-10 07:50:00 ET
Summary
- The four-week moving average of initial claims, which the Labor Department also provides, irons out the week-to-week squiggles.
- We’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, and we’re looking for a surge in continued claims for unemployment insurance.
- Recessions from the Great Recession back through the early 1980s began when continued claims for unemployment insurance spiked through about the 2.6-million mark.
It's time again to look at the trends in claims for unemployment insurance benefits. ...
Our Favorite Recession Indicator: Next Recession Keeps Moving Further Out