AFMC - Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top

2024-05-01 10:20:00 ET

Summary

• The probability the U.S. economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next twelve months has started to fall again during the past six weeks, after having hit a double-top.
• The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession will someday be officially determined to have begun sometime in the next 12 months.
• Another way to interpret the double-top pattern is to consider that it extends the period in which the highest probability of recession is elevated.

The probability the U.S. economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next twelve months has started to fall again during the past six weeks, after having hit a double-top ....

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