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Whether or not we will have a recession is no longer a question. The recession is already here. The only question is, how deep the recession will become.
Q1 GDP posted a reading of -1.4%, and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q2 is 0.0%. This means the US economy shrank during the first six months of 2022. That is a recession by the technical definition or any other honest measurement of the economy.
It is intractable inflation that is preventing Powell from pivoting dovish anytime soon, despite a blatantly obvious recession staring him in the face.