YUMY - Second Half Outlook: Recession Or Not That's The Question

• We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs.
• Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops.
• Consumers enter this slowdown with a large savings cushion, and inflation expectations may encourage consumption.
• The hawkish central bank shift remains a risk for regions like Europe, where inflation remains predominantly supply driven.

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