FOUR - Shift4 Payments: Improving Fundamentals + Declining Price = A Generational Buy

2024-05-13 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• Last Thursday, Shift4 Payments reported Q1 2024 earnings that missed estimates, but the stock is up 14% since then.
• In this note, we shall break down Shift4's Q1 report and find its fair value & expected returns.
• Is Mr. Market's reaction to Shift4's quarter an anomaly or the start of a deserved re-pricing?

Introduction

Shift4 Payments, Inc. ( FOUR ) is a 25-year-old financial technology company that processes payments for over 200K businesses, primarily in the retail, hospitality, leisure, and restaurant industries. Since starting Shift4 as a 16-year-old back in 1999, Jared Isaacman has been at the helm of this spectacular growth company as its CEO. While Shift4 has received some criticism for growing via M&A, Isaacman and his leadership team have delivered exceptional results with past acquisitions. And, unlike most of its high-growth fintech peers, Shift4 is a profitable business! ...

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