UPS - Should You Buy UPS While It's Below $140?
2024-06-16 07:30:00 ET
It's been a challenging year for UPS (NYSE: UPS) and its shareholders. The stock is down more than 21% over the last year and down 14% in 2024 as the company continues to face declining delivery volumes and challenging comparisons with previous periods due to elevated costs, including higher labor costs, resulting from a new contract agreed to last year. Still, stocks are often a great value when companies build a recovery from a seemingly difficult position.
UPS' 2024 business is a tale of two halves. Management expects its adjusted operating profit to decline by 20% to 30% in the first half compared to the same period in 2023. The second-half adjusted operating profit is anticipated to increase by 20% to 30%.
The dramatic difference in performance comes down to expectations for delivery volume growth to turn positive (see chart below) and for revenue per piece to outperform cost per piece in the second half. It's not only that industry volumes are improving; UPS is also winning back customers lost to last year's protracted labor dispute -- costumers diverted volumed in fear of strike action.
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Should You Buy UPS While It's Below $140?