HAIL - Slowing Money-Supply Growth In 2022 Points To Recession

• Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions.
• Even with March's bump in growth, money supply growth remains far below the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.
• The money supply metric used here—TMS—is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2.
• A sizable drop in the TMS growth levels often precedes an inversion in the yield curve which itself points to an impending recession.

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