UPRO - The 1-Minute Market Report July 1 2023
2023-07-03 04:23:00 ET
Summary
- After taking a well-deserved rest for a few days, the so-called AI Rally is back on track.
- After the minor pullback, June is up by 6.5%.
- The best performer last week was the EQM Blockchain Index, which is designed to measure the performance of global companies actively involved in the development and implementation of blockchain technologies.
- Only one of the S&P 500 top 7 stocks - Apple - managed to outperform the index.
Originally posted on July 1, 2023
In today's issue of the 1-Minute Market Report, I examine the asset classes, sectors, equity groups, and ETFs that led the market higher last week. By keeping an eye on the leaders and laggards, we can get a sense of where the big money is going, and where it's coming from. Of particular interest to me this week are the early signs that market participation is beginning to broaden out. If this trend continues, it will improve the durability of the rally. Details to follow.
The S&P 500 rally is back on track.
After taking a well-deserved rest for a few days, the so-called AI Rally is back on track. This chart shows the daily closing prices for June. The pullback was brief and shallow, as the chart shows.
June is still going strong.
After the minor pullback, June is up by 6.5%. This chart shows the monthly gains and losses for each of the last 12 months.
The bull market is alive and well.
This chart highlights the 24.4% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. The S&P 500 finished Friday, June 30 at its highest level in 15 months. The index is up 15.9% year to date and is 7.2% below its record-high close on January 3, 2022.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. I also included the year-to-date returns as well as the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
The best performer last week was the EQM Blockchain Index, which is designed to measure the performance of global companies actively involved in the development and implementation of blockchain technologies. The index includes a diversified range of companies, including those engaged in blockchain applications, digital asset mining, cryptocurrency exchanges, blockchain-enabled financial services, and other related activities.
The worst-performing asset class last week was volatility, as measured by the VIX index. VIX is a market index that measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index. In real-time, it represents the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. VIX closed at 13.59 on Friday, well below its long-term average of 18. A higher VIX means higher prices for options on the S&P 500 index (i.e., more expensive option premiums) while a lower VIX means lower option prices or cheaper premiums. Today's low reading implies that options investors are optimistic about the near-term future.
Equity sector performance
For this report, I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
As an indication that the market is beginning to broaden out, 11 of the 16 sectors outperformed the S&P 500 index. There was a clear rotation out of defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities and into more growth-oriented sectors like Transportation and Autos.
Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
As further evidence of the broadening out of the rally, Mid caps and Small caps outperformed Large caps. Growth stocks outperformed Defensive stocks. And the S&P Top 7 mega-cap tech stocks took a breather.
The 10 best-performing ETFs from last week
The 10 worst-performing ETFs from last week
Final thoughts
The market turned in a solid performance this week. Not only did the S&P 500 gain 2.4%, it did so without much help from the mega-cap tech stocks. Only one of the S&P 500 top 7 stocks - Apple ( AAPL ) - managed to outperform the index. (Apple gained 3.9% in the week.) The other 6 stocks underperformed. (Alphabet ([[GOOG]], [[GOOGL]]) lost 2.2%.)
The signs that more market segments are starting to participate in the rally are clear, at least for now. As the weeks and months go by, I expect to see more participation in this bull market.
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Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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The 1-Minute Market Report July 1, 2023