ILCB - The Not Quite Dead Yield Curve Signal
2024-06-01 01:45:00 ET
Summary
- The Treasury yield curve has been inverted between the 10-year and 2-year maturities for 500 days.
- Prior to the current inversion, which started in 2022, the 10-2 curve has inverted on four occasions since 1987.
- It still may be too early to conclude that the current stretch of 500+ days will end without a recession.
Yesterday is one of those round number days the market loves to get excited about. No, not the Nasdaq Composite index reaching 17,000 – that happened a couple of days ago and since then, the index has given back the prize, currently trading around 16,800 as we write this....
The Not Quite Dead Yield Curve Signal