TBT - The Russia-Ukraine War Impact: What We Don't Know And What We Do

• Putin’s gamble, and the West’s response, has brought into view one of the few existential tail risks that isn’t a Black Swan: the risk of an escalation into war between Russia and NATO, and the exchange of nuclear weaponry.
• We also know that the war between Ukraine and Russia has cemented a trend that financial markets aren’t too happy about.
• The change in conditions on the ground are easily identified; rates and volatility are rising, and equities and credit are suffering. Yield curves, by contrast, remain mixed.

For further details see: