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A “big” correction in the present low-volatility context is probably somewhere around 10%, or what we saw in the S&P 500 in September and October last year.
As things stand now, barring mutations, wars or counterproductive Fed actions, a likely target for a big correction would be the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500.
The long-term trend suggests that we should be on the lookout for selloffs in Septembers.