ILCB - U.S. Economic Data Still Reflect Low Recession Risk - Will It Last?

2024-05-28 10:50:00 ET

Summary

• A broad set of US economic indicators continues to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent.
• The macro trend peaked earlier in the year and is slowing, but the current reading for April remains moderately net positive.
• The bottom line: if recession risk is set to rise to a significant level, the evidence may arise as early as some point in the second half of the year.

A broad set of US economic indicators continues to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. This profile upends the dark narrative favored in some quarters. There are possible warning signs brewing on the horizon, but the case for expecting trouble is still weak, according to the numbers....

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