USMC - U.S. Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked - Will Recession Soon Follow?
2024-05-09 10:40:00 ET
Summary
- There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed.
- In the search of early warning signs of trouble, it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and weakness.
- Near-term projections highlighted in the US Business Cycle Risk Report strongly suggest that US economic growth will prevail through June.
There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise. But in the search of early warning signs of trouble, it's useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and weakness. Caution is still required, but a particular measure of the ebb and flow of payrolls is signaling a warning, and so it's worthwhile to take a closer look....
U.S. Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked - Will Recession Soon Follow?