QQQ - Week Ahead: Will Firm Headline U.S. CPI And A Recovery In Retail Sales Help The Dollar Recover?

2024-03-09 10:20:00 ET

Summary

• There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June.
• In the coming days, we expect a firm headline CPI reading and strong bounce in retail sales helped by autos and gasoline.
• We think the most likely scenario is for dollar-supportive economic news to hit after the dollar's sell-off seems extreme in a quantitative sense.

When everything was said and done last week, the market did not change its mind. There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June. Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank was not far from the level of confidence needed to cut rates.

The market understands "not far" to mean three months. The US reported a 275k gain in February's nonfarm payrolls. Taking the past two month's downward revisions into account, it was the third consecutive month of more than 225k jobs being created. The 265k average over the past three months is the highest since last June. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7%....

For further details see: