KBND - Week Ahead: Will Soft U.S. CPI And Retail Sales Mark The End Of The Interest Rate Adjustment?
2024-02-10 08:35:00 ET
Summary
- The markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that took place in late 2023.
- A soft US CPI and weak retail sales report next Tuesday and Wednesday could help cap US rates and signal the end of the dollar's New Year rally.
- The core rate is expected to rise by 0.3% for the third consecutive month and the fifth time in six months - that may be more important that the softer year-over-year rate.
The markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that took place in late 2023. The first Fed rate cut has been pushed out of March and odds of a May move have been pared to the lowest since last November. The extent of this year's cuts has been chopped to about 4.5 quarter-point move (~112 bp) from more than six a month ago. The market has reduced the extent of ECB cuts to about 114 bp (from 160 bp at the end of January and 190 in late 2023)....
Week Ahead: Will Soft U.S. CPI And Retail Sales Mark The End Of The Interest Rate Adjustment?