IWM - Weekly Indicators: Short Leading And Coincident Data Remain Mainly Positive

2024-07-06 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• Weekly indicators provide a good "nowcast" of the economy and help mark beliefs to the market.
• Data is presented in a factual format with minimal bias to analyze various economic indicators.
• Recent data shows improvements in short leading and coincident indicators, particularly in consumer spending, while long leading indicators remain “less bad.”.

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good "nowcast" of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to the market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma'am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked....

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