JUSA - Weekly Market Pulse: I Have Questions

• The current slowdown was telegraphed by the bond market, and we’re now in the midst of it. There are any number of reasons to think the economy will just keep fading all the way back to the pre-COVID trend of about 2%.
• I don’t see any reason to believe we are near recession. From yield curve to credit spreads to CFNAI, none of our recession warnings are flashing right now. Assuming no further shock that puts us back in recession quickly, this cycle would seem to have more to go.
• GDP has already recovered its pre-COVID high but with a couple million fewer workers. Job openings get a lot of press, but the quits rate is at an all-time high too.
• Thedata released last week was unsurprising. Inflation is higher than expected,new jobless claims are falling and there are a lot of job openings.

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