HOMZ - Will A Housing Construction Downturn In 2021 Lead To Recession In 2022? A 75-Year Review
- Interest rates lead housing sales and construction - which appear to have peaked.
- Sales and construction lead prices - which are still sharply rising.
- Prices in turn lead inventory - which is still very low and has not yet turned.
- In the low interest rate environment of the 1950s, even a modest rate increase led to recessions, but a demographic tailwind prevented that in a similar environment of 2014.
- Whether interest rates remain higher, and if so whether the 1950s or 2014 are the best template, is a crucial issue for the economy in 2022.
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Will A Housing Construction Downturn In 2021 Lead To Recession In 2022? A 75-Year Review